Metro playoff scenarios (2 games left)
October 13, 2017

Ah, crap... well, there is still one soccer team who we care about that is still alive. Let's do this!

With two regular season games left, Metro has qualified to the playoffs, and is sitting on 46 points. It looks like anything higher than a 6 seed is unlikely, but, hell, crazier things have happened, even this week... alright, let's move away from that. Metro! Concentrate!

Every team has two games left. Chicago sits 4th with 52 points, so Metro would have to win out and Chicago would have to lose out to catch them. (And, Columbus, between the two, would have to get at most two points. We'll get to Columbus later.) And even if all of that does happen, Metro would have to turn around the goal difference tiebreaker: Chicago is currently at +16, Metro at +5. This is not happening. Metro is finishing at best 5th, meaning a single-game playoff on the road. Fantastic!

Can Metro catch Columbus for 5th? Possible. The Crew is on 50 points, four up on Metro. If Metro wins and ties its last two games, that would not be enough, as Columbus would stay ahead on the wins tiebreaker. So, the only chance for Metro to pass Columbus is to win its last two games... and for the Crew to NOT win both of their last two. (A tie at 52 points would go to Metro on the goal difference tiebreaker.) So, Metro is guaranteed to finish 6th unless the following things happen this week:

  • Metro beats Atlanta AND Columbus ties or loses to Orlando

    Done.

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