Metro playoff scenarios (1 game left)
November 3, 2021
If someone told us two months ago that Metro would be going into the regular season finale needing a tie for a playoff berth, we would have been ecstatic. If someone told us the same thing two weeks ago, we would have taken it?
We have no choice but to take it now, as, despite dominating Atlanta, Metro could only come away with a scoreless draw, setting up a must-tie situation at Nashville, who has not lost at home yet. So why is a tie enough for Metro?
New York sits in the 7th and last playoff spot at 47 points. Three teams have a chance to catch them: Montreal at 46, DC Scum and Columbus at 44. A win getting Metro in is obvious, but why is a tie good enough? That is because Montreal plays Orlando in its finale. Orlando sits one above Metro at 48, but has one fewer win. If Metro ties, they go to 48 as well. Consider the following scenarios (first two advance):
Orlando wins: Orlando 51, Metro 48, Montreal 46
Tie: Orlando 49, Metro 48, Montreal 47
Montreal wins: Montreal 49, Metro 48, Orlando 48 (Metro advances on wins tiebreaker)
Metro can advance with a loss as well, but that is incredibly complicated and unlikely to happen. If Metro loses, a DC win will get them to 47 and go top on the wins tiebreaker. A Crew win will also get them to 47, but they will need to make up a seven-goal difference. To summarize, for Metro to advance, one of the following must happen:
Metro beats Nashville
Metro ties Nashville
Montreal ties or loses to Orlando AND DC ties or loses to Toronto AND Columbus ties or loses to Chicago (or does not make up the goal difference)
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