Dilly Duka

According to most "draft experts", there is a distinct top-five in this draft in terms of raw talent. In some order or another, it's central defender Ike Opara and attacking midfielder Corben Bone of Wake Forest, central midfielder Tony Tchani of Virginia, and forwards Danny Mwanga of Oregon State and Teal Bunbury of Akron. If you believe everything you hear (which I do, because I believe that makes me more selective than someone who believes none of what they hear), Philly have locked in on Mwanga with the first overall draft pick.

Which really works for us because, as I said, we don't need a forward anyway. Which also rules Bunbury out.

So, based purely on talent and reputation, that means we're choosing between two guys who fill a need (Opara and Bone), and one who doesn't (Tchani). But the one who doesn't is a guy many project as the next Shalrie Joseph, and Shalrie's only been one of the top three players of the decade. Do I want us to pass on the next Shalrie Joseph? No. No I do not.

But predicting MLS success is, charitably, an inexact science. Tchani could as easily become the next Danny O'Rourke or, worse, Mansour Ndiaye, as the next Joseph. The fact that he's had attitude problems (he was benched for a few games), doesn't really have a position (is he a d-mid? A box-to-box mid? A central defender?) and is a "loud component" player are all red flags for me.

So, I guess, if we hold onto the pick, and we subscribe to the same top five that everyone else apparently does, we should choose between Opara and Bone. It would be the safe, predictable thing to do.

And I think it would be a mistake.

Soccer teams screw up all the time because of what I call "loud components". Size. Speed. Work rate. Technical wizardry. These are assets, to be sure, but they're second level assets, and easily quantifiable to boot. It doesn't matter how big and fast you are if you're out of position -- as we saw from Opara both in the U-20s and in the NCAA Final Four. It doesn't matter how silky smooth you are on the ball, or how well you juggle, if you don't know when and where to be on the field to best help your team. Anybody can see your sick step-over, but how many people saw the two diagonal runs into the box that you missed?

What we need to look for are guys with the foundation components of great soccer players. Vision. Balance. Agility. Touch. And most important, a tactical nous or "field sense" that allows a team to play together and at pace.

I'm not saying that Bone, Opara and Tchani lack the above (though I obviously think the jury's out on Opara). What I am saying is that I think Dilly Duka, who largely lacks the "loud components" so favored by the untrained eye, possesses foundation components in abundance.

He was the best player on the U-20s, the only guy who could create space and pace for himself and his teammates. He's got a superior first touch -- and by that I don't just mean he can trap a bullet pass easily. I mean he takes his first touch for a purpose beyond just stopping the ball. He can play his team out of danger and into advantage with that one touch, and did so with regularity for both Rutgers and the U-20s.

Duka is also superior away from the ball, where 95% of soccer takes place. He moves, creating avenues of attack and possession. He drags defenders all over the field, wearing them out and breaking their shape. He maintains his balance when challenged physically. He plays quickly when the opportunity presents itself, but isn't afraid to cycle the ball back if the opponent is defending from a position of strength.

And he's trained with us before. We watched him long and hard over the summer, offered him a contract and tried desperately to sign him. If he was good enough to go after then, why not now? If we already know what he brings to the table, if he fits a need, if he outperformed the other top picks on the international stage... what else demands answering?

To bring it back to the beginning: Duka is the known known. That's a rare thing with soccer, and an even rarer thing with the Red Bulls. Go with the guy who brings the foundation components to the table. Make the smart pass instead of the attempting the perfect pass. Play the 4-4-2 instead of out-clevering yourself with the 3-6-1 or 4-3-3. Draft Dilly Duka.