Metro playoff scenarios (1 game left)
October 22, 2012
One thing for sure: Metro is in. The other thing for sure: they cannot finish higher than third in the East. The final thing: to avoid the wild card game, Metro needs to beat Philly in the regular season finale. The rest? Well...
Metro currently sits at 54 points, two points behind Chicago and three behind DC. The Fire and the Scum play each other after the Metro-Worms game, meaning that a Metro victory will make it possible for them to pass either of the two. If Chicago wins, Metro would tie the Scum on points and it will go down to the goals scored tiebreaker (Metro is currently up 2 on DC). If the Scum wins, Metro would jump over Chicago's 56 points. If there is a tie, Metro would go into a tiebreaker against the Fire, and should advance (they are currently up an insurmountable 9 on Chicago).
So, in case of a Metro victory over Philly, they will get the #3 seed and play the winner of the Chicago-DC game in the 2-3 home-and-home series (in case of a tie, they play DC), unless the following happens:
Metro wins, DC loses but scores three more goals in its loss than Metro does in its win. Metro would then host the wild card game against Houston.
Metro wins, DC wins, and Kansas City loses its finale vs Philly on Wednesday. Metro would play Kansas City in the 2-3 series. (Update: KC beat Philly, so this is moot.)
So, what happens if Metro ties or loses? Then, they are doomed to the wild card. If Houston fails to beat Colorado in its finale, Metro would host the Dynamo. In the case Metro loses and Houston ties, it would go to the tiebreaker (Metro is currently up 6 on Houston), so they should host in that scenario as well.
But if Metro fails to win and Houston does beat Colorado, then Metro would become the road wild card team. They would play Houston, unless DC beats Chicago. In that case, they would play the Fire.
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