Metro playoff scenarios (1 game left)
October 12, 2023
With one game left, Metro can actually qualify for the playoffs! Who would have thought that 10 days ago... Of course, if they do, it would be in the expanded 8-9 play-in game. But still, playoffs! Extending the MLS record to 14 straight years! Excitement, right?
Right. Of course, Metro does not actually hold its fate in its hands at the moment. Even if they beat Nashville, they will not necessarily qualify. Montreal is at 41 points, Metro at 40, Charlotte at 39. But Charlotte has a game in hand, and sweeping their last two games will push it over Metro. So, for Metro to qualify, they have to beat Nashville AND one of the following must happen:
A Montreal loss or tie vs Columbus OR
A Charlotte loss or tie in one of its games vs Miami
If Charlotte gets four points in its two games versus Miami, and Metro beats Nashville, both will be tied at 43 points, but Metro should win the goal difference tiebreaker (currently -4 vs -8), unless something crazy happens.
But wait! Metro can actually qualify with a tie. In that case, they will not be able to catch Montreal (the Canadians would advance on the wins tiebreaker even with a loss), and have to worry about the game between Chicago (40 points, but behind Metro on goal difference, -4 vs -11) and NYCFC (38 points). So, for Metro to qualify with a tie, ALL of the following must happen:
Chicago does not beat NYCFC AND
Charlotte does not win one of its games vs Miami
If NYCFC beats Chicago and ties Metro at 41, Metro would go ahead on the wins tiebreaker. If Charlotte draws its games vs Miami and ties Metro at 41, Metro would go ahead on goal difference.
So, root for Columbus, Miami, and, somehow... NYCFC.
|
