"When it comes to playoffs, it's about momentum. It's about luck." -- Jochen Schneider

Oh, her Schneider! We just can't wait until these playoffs, where we will need all the luck (not much luck in this franchise's history) and momentum (for a team that has won once in three months) to win what is bound to be an unbelievably difficult series against either Columbus or Cincinnati. But let's talk about this franchise's luck... numerically.

Don't get us wrong, the 15-year-streak to make the playoffs is absolutely amazing. If all things were equal (and, clearly, in MLS, all things are far from equal), the odds of a team making the playoffs every year from 2010 to 2024 are .017%. That's 17 in 100,000. So as much as we give Red Bull deserved ire for its lack of ambition, as much as the past six years have been a slog to nowhere, as much as 2023's last-second escape helped us to get to this point... 15 years in a row? That's not bad.

What's bad is the playoff performance. Again, if all things were equal, Metro's chance to win MLS Cup in the last 15 years was... 73%. Crap. Well, we're including this year in this calculation, so there's still a chance! (There is no chance.) And considering those 15 years included three Shields and other years with homefield advantage, 73% seems a tad low. And how many of these seasons did Metro enter the playoffs on a positive streak? Quite a few! No luck, we tell you! No momentum!

As. If.

As MLS has shown time and again, while luck and momentum play a role when you look at a specific playoff, when you look at the long term, there are obvious trends. Some clubs continue to bubble up to the top of the playoff ladder, making numerous MLS Cups, or at least conference finals (Seattle, Columbus, LAFC, etc.). These clubs all share one specific trend: they continuously invest in difference makers, something RBNY hasn't done since the last Shield. (And one might make the case not since the first Shield, only riding Jesse Marsch's brilliance to cover up penny-pinching. Maybe.)

But, yeah, keep preaching about luck and momentum, Herr Schneider.

"I was not told that I should become champions straight away." -- Sandro Schwarz

That's not gonna be a problem...