Dilly Duka

As we know, there are known knowns; there are things we know we know. We also know there are known unknowns; that is to say we know there are some things we do not know. But there are also unknown unknowns -- the ones we don't know we don't know. -- Donald Rumsfeld

That quote from the former SecDef fairly sums up the MLS draft process. It especially fairly sums up the Red Bulls' draft process, since we're inundated with known unknowns, such as "What formation does Hans Backe intend to play?", "Which veterans does he deem valuable?", "Will he listen to the advice of Richie and Des?", and "If you lined up the top 10 prospects in the upcoming draft Law & Order style, how many would he be able to name?"

The same goes for Erik Soler, though to a lesser extent. Soler at least has experience poaching MLS players like Hunter Freeman and Clarence Goodson, and signed Robbie Russell right out of college early in the decade. (Is it telling or coincidence that all three of those guys are defenders? Known unknown!) And since he didn't outright cut ties with Richie and Des it's also a safe assumption that he thinks they're good football people. With Soler, our list of known unknowns is manageable.

So we have our known knowns (we need an attacking midfielder and a central defender), our known unknowns (formation, tactics, overall approach to incorporating youth, feelings on the roster as a whole, potential signings), and our unknown unknowns (unable to create a list for the obvious reasons. See: Occean, Olivier).

Which is why predicting this particular MLS Draft for the Red Bulls is an exercise in pure guesswork. Take everything you read from here on out with a grain of salt.

First, I'm going to build a house of cards upon the bedrock of assumptions.

Assumption #1: We're not going to be moving picks or players.

That means we're locked in at #2, #14, #18, #31, #34, #48 and #50. Since the guy I think we should take (Dilly Duka) is considered a reach at #2 and, say, Dallas have the hots on for Ike Opara and two first rounders to give us (#s 5 and 6), you might be thinking, "Matt, it makes sense for us to trade down and add another first round pick rather than reach on a guy who's not good value for the spot, even if we really like him."

And you'd be right. But if I was to write a column predicting everything MLS teams should do in this draft, it certainly wouldn't include trading two first rounders to draft a guy who got beat for pace by a kid (Brian Ownby) who runs like Danny DeVito. I'm going to assume rationality from all parties involved, including Schellas Hyndman.

Assumption #2: Backe, Soler et al see the same needs that I do.

Namely, we need a creative hub in the central midfield. We need some youth, pace and distribution from the center of the defense. We could use depth at d-mid. And if there's a stand-out keeper still on the board at the end of the second/beginning of the third round, we should think long and hard about making that move.

This assumption could be comically wrong a week from now. But it's a known unknown, so I just have to roll with what Metro have given me.

Assumption #3: We're playing a 4-4-2.

Another one that could be comically wrong, but a leap I'm willing to make since 1) 95% of teams in Denmark have played the 4-4-2 almost exclusively this decade, and 2) Backe was on the staff of Sven Goran Eriksson, who himself almost always favored the 4-4-2 even when his personnel seemed to call for a different formation. The "fool me twice, shame on me" part of this is that, after the 2008 playoff run, throughout which Juan Carlos Osorio played the 4-4-2 to great effect, I assumed he would eschew lineup and formation juggling for stability and simplicity.

We'll know by mid-April at the latest if I'm an overly credulous fool.

Assumption #4: Thierry Henry is coming with the second DP after the World Cup.

Even if he's not coming, we're plenty deep at forward. But his imminent arrival absolutely rules out the prospect of us taking one of the highly rated forwards -- and there are a bunch -- in this draft. We're set there. We're set at fullback. We could add depth on the midfield flanks, but it's not pressing.

Central attacking midfield and central defense is where it's at for us.